Cooper Flagg
2025 Topps Chrome #251 · PSA 10
30-day median$312
7d ↓ 1.1%30d ↓ 3.6%
The Signal Index
THE SIGNAL
Verified card-market movement from exact-match completed sales. Ten locked cards. Every number below comes from a real sale — no estimates, no vibes.
Verified sales1,301
Basket10 cards
History windowJul 13–Oct 10, 2026
CadenceWeekly
This week’s signal
Weekly takeaway — updated Sundays
No broad move — but the edges are volatile
Of the ten Signal cards with enough recent sales to read, three rose, three fell, and two were flat this week — a split market with no broad direction. The composite index sits at 104.7 against a 100 baseline from mid-July: essentially flat across the full window.
The action is at the edges. Charizard VSTAR is up 26.7% on the week while Nami fell 30.0% and Jayden Daniels fell 27.1%. Victor Wembanyama shows a +19.6% weekly read, but it is concentrated in a cluster of October 10 sales with near-identical listing titles — we are treating that as unverified until the pattern confirms rather than calling it a real move.
What changed: breadth narrowed — fewer cards have enough weekly sales to qualify for a 7-day read than in prior weeks, so this week’s signal leans on the most liquid names (Flagg, Gengar, Wembanyama). The takeaway is concentration, not direction: when the index moves lately, a small number of cards are doing the work.
Signal 10 composite — each card rebased to 100 at the start of its history, averaged weekly. Full available history, no cutoff.
The 10
The locked basket
Five sports, five TCG. Exact set, parallel, and grade — a sale only counts if it matches the bucket exactly. Sparklines show weekly medians across each card’s full verified history.
Junior Caminero
2023 Bowman Chrome BCP-61 · PSA 10
30-day median$64
7d thin data30d ↓ 9.2%
Victor Wembanyama
2023 Panini Prizm #136 · PSA 10
30-day median$383
7d ↑ 19.6%30d ↓ 0.5%
Mike Trout
2011 Topps Update US175 · PSA 9
30-day median$430
7d ↑ 0.6%30d 0.0%
Jayden Daniels
2024 Panini Prizm #347 · PSA 10
30-day median$80
7d ↓ 27.1%30d ↓ 11.1%
Charizard VMAX
2020 Darkness Ablaze #20 · PSA 10
30-day median$136
7d ↓ 5.0%30d ↓ 9.7%
Charizard
2016 Evolutions #11 Holo · PSA 9
30-day median$210
7d thin data30d ↑ 2.7%
Charizard VSTAR
2022 Brilliant Stars #18 · PSA 10
30-day median$112
7d ↑ 26.7%30d ↓ 14.6%
Gengar VMAX
2021 Fusion Strike #157 Alt Art · PSA 10
30-day median$220
7d ↑ 4.0%30d ↓ 4.5%
Nami
2022 Romance Dawn OP01 #016 · PSA 10
30-day median$205
7d ↓ 30.0%30d ↓ 6.8%
Sectors
Sports vs TCG
Each sector rebased to 100 at the window start. Sports has run hotter on Wembanyama strength; TCG has been steadier but softer since late September.
Sports (5 cards)TCG (5 cards)
Sports index116.3
TCG index93.1
Composite104.7
Liquidity
Most traded this window
Ranked by qualified exact-match sales in the window. Liquidity is what makes a median trustworthy — thin markets get flagged, not hidden.
| # | Card | Lane | Sales | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Flagg 2025 Topps Chrome #251 · PSA 10 | Sports | 329 | $312 |
| 2 | Gengar VMAX 2021 Fusion Strike #157 Alt Art · PSA 10 | TCG | 258 | $220 |
| 3 | Victor Wembanyama 2023 Panini Prizm #136 · PSA 10 | Sports | 195 | $383 |
| 4 | Jayden Daniels 2024 Panini Prizm #347 · PSA 10 | Sports | 191 | $80 |
| 5 | Mike Trout 2011 Topps Update US175 · PSA 9 | Sports | 72 | $430 |
| 6 | Nami 2022 Romance Dawn OP01 #016 · PSA 10 | TCG | 60 | $205 |
| 7 | Charizard 2016 Evolutions #11 Holo · PSA 9 | TCG | 59 | $210 |
| 8 | Charizard VSTAR 2022 Brilliant Stars #18 · PSA 10 | TCG | 56 | $112 |
| 9 | Charizard VMAX 2020 Darkness Ablaze #20 · PSA 10 | TCG | 55 | $136 |
| 10 | Junior Caminero 2023 Bowman Chrome BCP-61 · PSA 10 | Sports | 26 | $64 |
Methodology
How the Signal is built
The short version below. The full standard lives on our methodology page.
- Exact-match only
A sale counts only if it matches the card’s set, number, parallel, grading company, and grade exactly. A PSA 9 sale never informs a PSA 10 bucket. No “similar card” comps.
- Completed sales, never listings
Asking prices and active listings are not sales. Every record is a completed transaction with a verified sold price.
- Sub-$1 records excluded
Records under $1 are data errors or shipping-only entries and are removed before any calculation.
- No inferred pricing
We never fill gaps with estimates, algorithmic “market prices,” or stale comps. If a week has too few sales, the chart shows a gap — not a guess.
- Weekly refresh, growing history
New verified sales append every week; history only grows. Charts show the maximum available verified history per card — no 12-week or 28-day cutoff.
- Sources & limits
Current source: eBay completed sales via CardSight. Private sales, hidden best-offer accepted prices, and other marketplaces are not captured. The basket is fixed until a published rebalance — constituents don’t drift silently.
- Revision policy
If a record is later found mislabeled, it is removed and the correction is noted with the refresh. Past snapshots are never rewritten without disclosure.
The Signal Brief
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What moved, what held, and what the raw numbers actually mean — in your inbox every week. The page stays public; the interpretation comes to you.